It’s interesting to think how quickly something can get replaced. If you look over the past twenty years or so, there are many examples of dominant technology that quickly faded away due to an emerging one.
Think about typewriters and word processors and how the PC eliminated that industry.
Think about VHS and Betamax video cassettes and now how DVDs have revolutionized home videos.
Think about how tape cassettes then CDs and now MP3s/iTunes have become the de facto music standard.
But what’s next? Is there something that we take for granted that we use everyday that quickly might be eliminated? A couple examples come to mind:
- Say goodbye to the PC, Microsoft Windows, and MS Office - Who needs to purchase an operating system and business tools if you can get the same functionality from online versions. Could the future be a box or terminal that merely provides access to the web? Google certainly sees this and thus is providing more and more online applications and storage. The quality and functionality is getting quite good as well. If you haven’t already, check out Google Docs & Spreadsheets and other similiar online programs — you’ll see why Microsoft is scared and falling behind.
- Landline telephones – It’s amazing how many people have cell phones today. I remember in my undergraduate days, very few people had one. If you did own one, they were quite bulky and expensive. People bought them for emergencies and the convenience of not having to use a pay phone. You never thought of not having a phone at home. If you had asked someone to name companies that made telephones you’d get names like Panasonic, Uniden, GE, etc. They had a stranglehold on the home phone. Today with today’s youth, you’d be hardpressed to find aided brand recognition for these companies and phones. In several more years will children even know what a landline is?
The key for companies today is to anticipate what might become and not be today blinded by today. Look at the kings of industries that seemingly overnight get overthrown. Look at history and the many examples of great leaders, dynasties, countries, etc. who lose it all because they ignore the signs. Don’t forget that change is inevitable.
